Executive Summary
This report analyzes the “New Housing Construction Statistics for Reiwa 7 (2025)” published by Toyama Prefecture. The data shows a severe decline in housing starts, with a total decrease of nearly 34% compared to the previous year. This indicates that the market is facing a structural crisis, not just a temporary economic slowdown. Due to soaring construction costs and a decrease in real income, the “affordability” of housing has reached its limit. Furthermore, the supply of rental housing and speculative housing (built-for-sale) has dropped significantly, showing that investment money is leaving the market. The polarization between Toyama City and other municipalities is also accelerating.
Key Takeaways
- Market Shrinkage of 30%: The 33.8% decrease in total housing starts signifies a collapse in purchasing power due to high costs, leading to an irreversible reduction in market size.
- Flight of Investment Capital: The drastic drop in rental housing (-36.6%) and built-for-sale housing (-55.0%) proves that the traditional high-yield business model is no longer viable.
- Acceleration of Area Selection: More than half of new construction is concentrated in Toyama City. In other areas, the new housing market is struggling to function.
The Disappearance of the “Volume Zone” and the Wall of Cost
The most critical fact in the 2025 statistics is the speed of market contraction. The total number of new housing starts (January to December) was 4,173 units, and the fiscal year total (April to December) recorded a 33.8% decrease compared to the same period last year. In the real estate industry, a double-digit decline is rare; a decline of over 30% means the market environment has completely changed.
The main cause is clearly the “surge in construction costs.” The prices of materials and labor have risen, but the household income in Toyama has not increased at the same rate. As a result, average families can no longer afford standard new houses.
We must look at the construction methods. Wooden houses decreased by 25.9%, but non-wooden houses (such as steel or reinforced concrete) decreased by 51.5%. This suggests that consumers are extremely sensitive to price. Even people who prefer high-performance non-wooden houses are forced to give up or switch to cheaper specifications. This indicates that the “middle-class volume zone,” which supported major house manufacturers, is disappearing.
The Break-Even Point Crisis in Investment Projects
While owner-occupied houses (custom homes) decreased by 23.3%, the situation in the investment sector is much more serious. Rental housing decreased by 36.6%, and built-for-sale housing (subdivision housing) decreased by 55.0%.
These numbers show that the business profitability has collapsed. Developers and investors build these types of houses only when they expect a profit. The fact that supply has halved means that under current construction costs, it is impossible to secure a yield in the Toyama market.
- Rental Market: Rents in Toyama cannot be raised easily because the population is declining. Therefore, landlords cannot cover the high construction costs with rent income.
- For-Sale Market: Developers are afraid of inventory risk. The era of “build it and it will sell” is over. They have stopped supplying houses in areas that are not prime locations.
This structural change implies that developers with weak capital or construction companies that rely on proposing apartment management to landowners will be eliminated from the market.
Polarization: Toyama City vs. The Others
The statistics show a clear “polarization” of the area. Toyama City accounts for 51.0% of all new housing starts in the prefecture. If we include Takaoka City and Imizu City, these three cities dominate the majority of the market.
On the other hand, in towns and smaller cities, the number of housing starts is extremely low. In some months, the number is close to zero. This suggests that in rural areas, the economic rationale for building “new” houses is lost. Even if land prices are cheap, the building cost is too high. Therefore, people in these areas are likely choosing to renovate existing houses or live with their parents instead of building new ones.
Construction companies will likely concentrate their resources in Toyama City to maintain efficiency. They may stop taking orders from distant rural areas because of transportation costs. This will create a “supply constraint” in the countryside, where residents cannot find builders easily.
Conclusion: The Divergence of Winners and Losers
The data from 2025 demonstrates that the era of expansion is finished. The market has shrunk to two-thirds of its previous size. In this new environment, not all companies can survive.
The potential losers are the “volume builders” who compete only on price, and developers who rely on suburban development. They cannot cover their fixed costs as the volume drops.
The potential winners are companies that can provide high value (design, brand, performance) that justifies the high price, or companies that can offer solutions other than new construction, such as high-quality renovation.
The market has shifted from “quantity” to “quality” and “selection.” The strategy for the future will depend on how to adapt to this smaller, more expensive, and more concentrated market.
県内住宅着工34%減、歴史的急落の波紋「建てられない」時代の到来と不動産ビジネスモデルの崩壊
